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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.58+6.61vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.57+2.82vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.37+2.44vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.52+1.10vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.28+3.58vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.44-0.73vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.27-1.29vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.16-1.93vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.52-4.02vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.47-1.86vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.56-3.17vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy1.55-1.32vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut-0.18+0.67vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College0.24-0.98vs Predicted
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15Sacred Heart University0.12-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.61University of Vermont2.580.1%1st Place
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4.82Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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5.44Dartmouth College3.370.1%1st Place
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5.1Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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8.58Tufts University2.280.0%1st Place
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5.27Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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5.71Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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6.07Yale University3.160.1%1st Place
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4.98Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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8.14Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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7.83Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
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10.68Maine Maritime Academy1.550.0%1st Place
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13.67University of Connecticut-0.180.0%1st Place
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13.02Middlebury College0.240.0%1st Place
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13.09Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ceely | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Max Nickbarg | 12.7% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Read | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 13.2% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Viktor Wettergren | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Colin MURPHY | 11.4% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 11.2% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Urska Kosir | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 12.2% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Timothy Harding | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Rinchen Harrison | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 24.0% | 20.0% | 8.4% | 1.7% |
| Shane Baker | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 14.1% | 28.3% | 42.8% |
| Jade Forsberg | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 10.1% | 21.5% | 29.5% | 24.5% |
| Brian Reilly | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 21.5% | 26.8% | 29.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.