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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.16+5.03vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.37+3.32vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.52+1.95vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.44+1.24vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.28+3.57vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.27-0.27vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.58+0.72vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.47+0.09vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.57-4.14vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.52-4.87vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy1.55-0.48vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.56-3.99vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College0.24+0.13vs Predicted
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14Sacred Heart University0.12-0.81vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut-0.18-1.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.03Yale University3.160.1%1st Place
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5.32Dartmouth College3.370.1%1st Place
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4.95Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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5.24Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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8.57Tufts University2.280.0%1st Place
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5.73Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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7.72University of Vermont2.580.1%1st Place
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8.09Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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4.86Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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5.13Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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10.52Maine Maritime Academy1.550.0%1st Place
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8.01Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
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13.13Middlebury College0.240.0%1st Place
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13.19Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
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13.53University of Connecticut-0.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urska Kosir | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Evan Read | 9.9% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 12.8% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin MURPHY | 13.0% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Viktor Wettergren | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 15.1% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Allman | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Ceely | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Adam Keally | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Max Nickbarg | 13.1% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 11.1% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rinchen Harrison | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 21.7% | 17.3% | 9.6% | 2.3% |
| Timothy Harding | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Jade Forsberg | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 21.5% | 30.5% | 26.6% |
| Brian Reilly | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 22.3% | 28.7% | 28.9% |
| Shane Baker | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 25.3% | 41.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.