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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.44+4.18vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.16+3.91vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.27+2.64vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.37+1.44vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.52+0.15vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.28+2.64vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.52-1.99vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.56-0.21vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.57-4.21vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.58-2.15vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.47-2.90vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy1.55-1.31vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut-0.18+0.67vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College0.24-1.00vs Predicted
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16Sacred Heart University0.12-2.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.18Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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5.91Yale University3.160.1%1st Place
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5.64Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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5.44Dartmouth College3.370.1%1st Place
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5.15Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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8.64Tufts University2.280.0%1st Place
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5.01Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.79Brown University2.560.1%1st Place
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4.79Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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7.85University of Vermont2.580.1%1st Place
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8.1Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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10.69Maine Maritime Academy1.550.0%1st Place
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13.67University of Connecticut-0.180.0%1st Place
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13.0Middlebury College0.240.0%1st Place
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13.11Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin MURPHY | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Urska Kosir | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 9.4% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Evan Read | 12.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 11.9% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Viktor Wettergren | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Will Holz | 13.6% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Harding | 5.5% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Max Nickbarg | 12.9% | 14.4% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Ceely | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Adam Keally | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Rinchen Harrison | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 24.7% | 19.4% | 8.9% | 1.6% |
| Shane Baker | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 14.2% | 27.8% | 43.1% |
| Jade Forsberg | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 22.1% | 29.4% | 24.4% |
| Brian Reilly | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 8.9% | 20.9% | 26.8% | 29.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.