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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.27+4.38vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.52+2.64vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.57+1.55vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.37+1.09vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.28+3.14vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.44-1.10vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.52-2.37vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.47-0.33vs Predicted
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9Sacred Heart University1.05+2.29vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.58-2.61vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.56-3.62vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy1.55-1.75vs Predicted
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13Yale University0.62-0.71vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College0.24-1.11vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut-0.21-1.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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4.64Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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4.55Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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5.09Dartmouth College3.370.1%1st Place
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8.14Tufts University2.280.0%1st Place
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4.9Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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4.63Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.67Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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11.29Sacred Heart University1.050.0%1st Place
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7.39University of Vermont2.580.0%1st Place
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7.38Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
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10.25Maine Maritime Academy1.550.0%1st Place
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12.29Yale University0.620.0%1st Place
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12.89Middlebury College0.240.0%1st Place
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13.52University of Connecticut-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Allman | 11.3% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 12.5% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Nickbarg | 15.0% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Read | 12.8% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Viktor Wettergren | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Colin MURPHY | 12.1% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 14.3% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Eric Sowell | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 19.7% | 18.6% | 15.0% | 6.2% |
| Adam Ceely | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Timothy Harding | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Rinchen Harrison | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 16.0% | 18.3% | 14.2% | 8.9% | 1.4% |
| Henry Lewis | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 13.5% | 22.7% | 21.8% | 17.4% |
| Jade Forsberg | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 17.8% | 26.1% | 27.6% |
| Meredith Kresic | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 21.9% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.