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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University1.47+4.78vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University0.87+5.19vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.70+1.95vs Predicted
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4Clemson University0.73+3.29vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College1.17+1.05vs Predicted
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6Rice University0.91+1.48vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.60+1.22vs Predicted
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8Texas A&M University1.30-1.89vs Predicted
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9University of Texas0.41+1.51vs Predicted
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10The Citadel-0.27+2.53vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia0.04-0.08vs Predicted
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12University of Central Florida-0.20+0.86vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida-0.31+0.65vs Predicted
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14Florida Institute of Technology-0.88+0.33vs Predicted
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15Hope College-0.31-2.19vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.41-1.49vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-6.15vs Predicted
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18University of North Carolina-0.92-3.55vs Predicted
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19Michigan State University-0.44-5.85vs Predicted
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20William and Mary-1.40-3.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78San Diego State University1.4711.7%1st Place
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7.19North Carolina State University0.877.8%1st Place
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4.95Jacksonville University1.7013.8%1st Place
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7.29Clemson University0.737.6%1st Place
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6.05Eckerd College1.1710.3%1st Place
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7.48Rice University0.917.1%1st Place
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8.22Christopher Newport University0.606.2%1st Place
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6.11Texas A&M University1.3010.9%1st Place
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10.51University of Texas0.414.0%1st Place
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12.53The Citadel-0.271.8%1st Place
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10.92University of Virginia0.043.1%1st Place
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12.86University of Central Florida-0.201.9%1st Place
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13.65University of South Florida-0.311.8%1st Place
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14.33Florida Institute of Technology-0.881.5%1st Place
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12.81Hope College-0.311.7%1st Place
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14.51Arizona State University-0.412.1%1st Place
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10.85Washington College0.193.1%1st Place
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14.45University of North Carolina-0.921.6%1st Place
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13.15Michigan State University-0.441.6%1st Place
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16.35William and Mary-1.400.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Smith | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Brelage | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 13.8% | 13.1% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nilah Miller | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ricky Miller | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mather | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Bradlee Anderson | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 3.8% |
| Claire Miller | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Charlie Eckert | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Garrett Floerchinger | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.2% |
| William Mullray | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 11.3% |
| Caroline Henry | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 12.4% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Emma Gumny | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 13.9% |
| Ryan Dodge | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 32.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.