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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida1.09+9.06vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University1.26+7.72vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.08+3.74vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.07+3.08vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.25+5.46vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.21+1.87vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.14+3.26vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.13+6.15vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.10+0.93vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.35-1.34vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.31-0.30vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.90-0.75vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.25-3.75vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.20-8.42vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.24-4.84vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.94-4.45vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University0.95-6.46vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.68-10.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.06University of South Florida1.094.7%1st Place
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9.72North Carolina State University1.263.9%1st Place
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6.74Stanford University2.089.1%1st Place
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7.08Bowdoin College2.078.8%1st Place
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10.46Tufts University1.254.0%1st Place
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7.87Tulane University2.216.8%1st Place
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10.26Boston University1.143.8%1st Place
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14.15SUNY Maritime College0.131.6%1st Place
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9.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.104.2%1st Place
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8.66St. Mary's College of Maryland1.356.2%1st Place
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10.7University of Vermont1.313.1%1st Place
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11.25Fordham University0.903.1%1st Place
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9.25Roger Williams University1.255.8%1st Place
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5.58Georgetown University2.2014.2%1st Place
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10.16George Washington University1.244.2%1st Place
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11.55University of Wisconsin0.942.5%1st Place
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10.54Old Dominion University0.954.2%1st Place
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7.03Cornell University1.6810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Shakespeare | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% |
| Stephanie Houck | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 34.1% |
| Camille McGriff | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% |
| Katherine Bennett | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Grace Gear | 3.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Piper Holthus | 14.2% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.8% |
| Hailey Feinzig | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.