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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+8.56vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.73+4.60vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.64+1.01vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.29+3.90vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+1.85vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.83+4.00vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.68+3.87vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.44+0.66vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College0.780.00vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University0.75+0.69vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.88-4.55vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.13-2.56vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.09-5.28vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.37-1.88vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.32-0.45vs Predicted
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16George Washington University0.21-3.25vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.36-4.89vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.48-6.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.2%1st Place
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6.6Tulane University1.739.0%1st Place
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4.01Stanford University2.6421.9%1st Place
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7.9Georgetown University1.296.0%1st Place
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6.85St. Mary's College of Maryland1.767.9%1st Place
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10.0Tufts University0.833.5%1st Place
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10.87Old Dominion University0.683.4%1st Place
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8.66University of South Florida1.445.1%1st Place
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9.0Bowdoin College0.784.2%1st Place
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10.69Roger Williams University0.752.6%1st Place
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6.45Cornell University1.8810.2%1st Place
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9.44Fordham University1.135.0%1st Place
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7.72North Carolina State University1.097.2%1st Place
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12.12Boston University0.372.1%1st Place
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14.55SUNY Maritime College-0.321.7%1st Place
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12.75George Washington University0.211.6%1st Place
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12.11University of Wisconsin0.362.2%1st Place
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11.72University of Vermont0.482.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Caroline Benson | 9.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Freeman | 21.9% | 16.7% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Madison Bashaw | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Megan Geith | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.8% |
| Sydney Monahan | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Michaela ODonnell | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 3.7% |
| Meredith Moran | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 36.6% |
| Sarah Hardee | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 14.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 10.5% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.