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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgia Institute of Technology-0.08+5.43vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University0.77+2.54vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston1.26+0.30vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College-0.27+2.76vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston1.56-2.20vs Predicted
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6Duke University-0.57+1.38vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05-0.63vs Predicted
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8Clemson University-0.17-2.04vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College0.36-3.69vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston-2.08+0.37vs Predicted
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11University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.61-0.97vs Predicted
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12Auburn University-1.16-3.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43Georgia Institute of Technology-0.085.2%1st Place
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4.54North Carolina State University0.7711.5%1st Place
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3.3College of Charleston1.2621.8%1st Place
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6.76Dartmouth College-0.273.8%1st Place
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2.8College of Charleston1.5630.3%1st Place
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7.38Duke University-0.573.5%1st Place
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6.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.055.5%1st Place
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5.96Clemson University-0.176.8%1st Place
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5.31Dartmouth College0.368.0%1st Place
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10.37College of Charleston-2.080.4%1st Place
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10.03University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.611.2%1st Place
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8.75Auburn University-1.162.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Woerner | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 1.1% |
| Harrison Bailey | 11.5% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Emily Alfortish | 21.8% | 20.0% | 18.1% | 14.7% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rob Mailley | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 1.8% |
| Ethan Homberger | 30.3% | 22.7% | 16.8% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Aramendia | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 14.1% | 9.8% | 4.0% |
| Lewis Bragg | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Samantha Bialek | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Connor Vogel | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Chad Callahan | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 22.1% | 44.5% |
| Nevin Williams | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 26.7% | 33.6% |
| Joaquin Marquez | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 18.7% | 20.3% | 12.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.