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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University0.77+3.54vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.56+0.78vs Predicted
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3Georgia Institute of Technology-0.08+3.35vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College0.36+1.24vs Predicted
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5Clemson University-0.17+0.99vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05+0.38vs Predicted
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7Duke University-0.57+0.36vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.26-4.60vs Predicted
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9University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.61+1.11vs Predicted
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10Auburn University-1.16-1.33vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston-2.08-0.61vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College-0.27-5.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.54North Carolina State University0.7711.7%1st Place
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2.78College of Charleston1.5629.3%1st Place
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6.35Georgia Institute of Technology-0.085.7%1st Place
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5.24Dartmouth College0.368.6%1st Place
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5.99Clemson University-0.176.0%1st Place
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6.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.055.7%1st Place
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7.36Duke University-0.574.3%1st Place
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3.4College of Charleston1.2620.1%1st Place
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10.11University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.611.1%1st Place
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8.67Auburn University-1.162.1%1st Place
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10.39College of Charleston-2.080.6%1st Place
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6.78Dartmouth College-0.274.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Bailey | 11.7% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Homberger | 29.3% | 24.1% | 18.0% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woerner | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Connor Vogel | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Samantha Bialek | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Lewis Bragg | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| Natalie Aramendia | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 10.7% | 3.4% |
| Emily Alfortish | 20.1% | 20.8% | 18.5% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Williams | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 13.7% | 25.7% | 35.4% |
| Joaquin Marquez | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 19.6% | 20.0% | 10.9% |
| Chad Callahan | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 22.2% | 45.3% |
| Rob Mailley | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.