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📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.26+2.34vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.56+0.86vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University0.77+1.71vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College0.36+1.39vs Predicted
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5Clemson University-0.17+1.06vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College-0.27+0.94vs Predicted
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7Georgia Institute of Technology-0.08-0.48vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05-1.46vs Predicted
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9Duke University-0.57-1.46vs Predicted
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10University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.61+0.52vs Predicted
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11University of Georgia-1.97-0.37vs Predicted
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12Auburn University-1.16-3.00vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston-2.08-2.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34College of Charleston1.2621.6%1st Place
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2.86College of Charleston1.5629.5%1st Place
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4.71North Carolina State University0.7710.9%1st Place
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5.39Dartmouth College0.368.5%1st Place
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6.06Clemson University-0.176.9%1st Place
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6.94Dartmouth College-0.274.2%1st Place
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6.52Georgia Institute of Technology-0.085.2%1st Place
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6.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.055.1%1st Place
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7.54Duke University-0.573.5%1st Place
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10.52University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.611.0%1st Place
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10.63University of Georgia-1.970.9%1st Place
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9.0Auburn University-1.161.9%1st Place
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10.95College of Charleston-2.080.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Alfortish | 21.6% | 20.5% | 16.9% | 15.6% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Homberger | 29.5% | 22.5% | 16.4% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Bailey | 10.9% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Vogel | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Samantha Bialek | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Rob Mailley | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Cole Woerner | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Lewis Bragg | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Natalie Aramendia | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Nevin Williams | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 17.3% | 22.8% | 24.7% |
| Katie Kellam | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 22.4% | 29.1% |
| Joaquin Marquez | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 17.5% | 14.6% | 7.6% |
| Chad Callahan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 24.1% | 34.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.