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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+6.48vs Predicted
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2Hampton University2.28+11.00vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.16+6.42vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+1.89vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+5.46vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.77+4.80vs Predicted
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7Fordham University4.26-1.81vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University4.36-3.18vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.05+0.63vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.71+1.25vs Predicted
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11George Washington University3.49-2.96vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.70-4.53vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.67-5.88vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-3.79vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia3.01-5.18vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo2.44-3.78vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University1.95-3.06vs Predicted
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18Drexel University1.75-3.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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13.0Hampton University2.280.0%1st Place
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9.42University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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5.89St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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10.8Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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5.19Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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4.82Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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9.63SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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11.25Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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8.04George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.47Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.12U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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10.21Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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9.82University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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12.22University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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13.94Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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14.25Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Veronica Maccari | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.8% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Fletcher Sims | 12.0% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| Olin Paine | 13.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 14.8% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| Charles Nunn | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Brady Stagg | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Michael Grove | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Griffin Orr | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 16.4% | 24.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 15.7% | 28.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.