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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+5.15vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.36+2.99vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.39vs Predicted
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4Fordham University4.26+1.15vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.70+2.12vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.05+3.72vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.49+0.90vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-0.79vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.22vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01+0.14vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.84-0.37vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-1.04vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University1.95+0.67vs Predicted
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14Drexel University1.75+0.18vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo2.44-2.93vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.77-5.18vs Predicted
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17Hampton University2.28-4.13vs Predicted
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18Washington College2.71-7.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.15St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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4.99Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.39U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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5.15Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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7.12Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.72SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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7.9George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.22University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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10.14University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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10.63Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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10.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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13.67Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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14.18Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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12.07University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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10.82Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.87Hampton University2.280.0%1st Place
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10.83Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 12.4% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Olin Paine | 14.6% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 7.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Nick Valente | 4.2% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Louis Padnos | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% |
| Max Neubelt | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 4.9% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 22.4% |
| Joan Boyle | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 29.4% |
| Griffin Orr | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% |
| Veronica Maccari | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 13.7% |
| Charles Nunn | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.