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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.36+4.07vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+5.53vs Predicted
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3George Washington University3.49+5.16vs Predicted
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4Hampton University2.28+8.55vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.71+5.98vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.23vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-1.08vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+2.51vs Predicted
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9Fordham University4.26-3.86vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.70-2.66vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-0.02vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.16-2.39vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia3.01-3.28vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-3.73vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo2.44-2.93vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University1.95-2.08vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.75-2.48vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College3.05-8.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.07Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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8.16George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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12.55Hampton University2.280.0%1st Place
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10.98Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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5.92St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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10.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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5.14Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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7.34Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.98Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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9.61University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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9.72University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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10.27Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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12.07University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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13.92Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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14.52Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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9.51SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 13.4% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Veronica Maccari | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 12.8% |
| Charles Nunn | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 4.2% |
| Michael Grove | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Fletcher Sims | 11.1% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% |
| Olin Paine | 14.2% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.5% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 9.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 17.4% | 22.7% |
| Joan Boyle | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 32.5% |
| Nick Valente | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.