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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.36+4.01vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+3.99vs Predicted
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3Fordham University4.26+2.19vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+3.05vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.70+1.98vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.05+3.48vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.67+0.12vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.01vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia3.01+0.62vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.84+0.46vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.64+3.28vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University1.95+1.64vs Predicted
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13George Washington University3.49-5.33vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.77-3.81vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo2.44-3.28vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-5.63vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.60-0.42vs Predicted
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18Washington College2.71-7.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.01Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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5.99St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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5.19Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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7.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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6.98Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.48SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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7.12U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.01University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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9.62University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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10.46Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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14.28Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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13.64Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.67George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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10.19Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.72University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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10.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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16.58Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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10.64Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 13.6% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olin Paine | 12.4% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Brady Stagg | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Michael Grove | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Chris Myers | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 24.3% | 15.8% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 22.3% | 9.9% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.0% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.1% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 13.5% | 63.2% |
| Charles Nunn | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.