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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.98+2.55vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.74+4.78vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.95+3.14vs Predicted
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4University of Michigan1.12+1.67vs Predicted
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5Florida State University1.62-0.56vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University0.91+2.17vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81-0.48vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.59-0.27vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.26-3.69vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.25-1.72vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.31-1.41vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.02-0.90vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University0.44-5.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55College of Charleston1.9821.6%1st Place
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6.78University of California at Berkeley0.746.6%1st Place
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6.14Old Dominion University0.957.5%1st Place
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5.67University of Michigan1.129.5%1st Place
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4.44Florida State University1.6215.4%1st Place
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8.17North Carolina State University0.914.2%1st Place
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6.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.817.8%1st Place
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7.73Christopher Newport University0.594.8%1st Place
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5.31College of Charleston1.2611.4%1st Place
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8.28University of South Florida0.254.0%1st Place
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9.59Washington College-0.312.1%1st Place
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11.1Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.020.8%1st Place
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7.72Jacksonville University0.444.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Mckenzie | 21.6% | 20.0% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Olsen | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Joe Serpa | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Joey Meagher | 15.4% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 7.2% |
| Celia Houston | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Luke Hayes | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 5.1% |
| Emily Alfortish | 11.4% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 7.7% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 20.0% | 18.9% |
| Madeleine Adams | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 49.0% |
| Patrick Barney | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.