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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.98+2.49vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.12+3.68vs Predicted
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3Florida State University1.62+1.50vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.26+1.31vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.59+2.80vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.74+0.55vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida0.25+1.12vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81-1.34vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University0.91-0.67vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.31-0.37vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.44-3.33vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.95-5.96vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.02-1.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.49College of Charleston1.9822.6%1st Place
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5.68University of Michigan1.129.2%1st Place
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4.5Florida State University1.6214.1%1st Place
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5.31College of Charleston1.2610.8%1st Place
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7.8Christopher Newport University0.594.6%1st Place
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6.55University of California at Berkeley0.747.8%1st Place
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8.12University of South Florida0.253.8%1st Place
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6.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.817.3%1st Place
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8.33North Carolina State University0.913.6%1st Place
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9.63Washington College-0.312.6%1st Place
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7.67Jacksonville University0.444.5%1st Place
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6.04Old Dominion University0.958.0%1st Place
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11.21Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.021.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Mckenzie | 22.6% | 19.2% | 17.4% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Joey Meagher | 14.1% | 14.8% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Emily Alfortish | 10.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 5.0% |
| Katherine Olsen | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 1.9% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Celia Houston | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 7.9% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 21.6% | 18.8% |
| Patrick Barney | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 5.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Madeleine Adams | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 15.8% | 51.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.