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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University4.26+4.39vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.05+7.89vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.70+4.27vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+6.46vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.36-0.18vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia3.01+3.87vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77+3.77vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-2.11vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.82vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania3.16-0.50vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.71+0.11vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.84-1.17vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.67-5.86vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University1.95-0.51vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.64-0.35vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo2.44-3.79vs Predicted
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17Hampton University2.28-4.22vs Predicted
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18George Washington University3.49-10.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.39Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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9.89SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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7.27Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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4.82Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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9.87University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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10.77Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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5.89St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.5University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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11.11Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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10.83Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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13.49Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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14.65Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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12.21University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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12.78Hampton University2.280.0%1st Place
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7.75George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olin Paine | 12.9% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Brady Stagg | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Nevin Snow | 17.1% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Fletcher Sims | 10.8% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Charles Nunn | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.1% |
| Michael Grove | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 15.7% | 19.4% |
| Chris Myers | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 16.9% | 32.8% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% |
| Veronica Maccari | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 13.8% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.