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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81+5.59vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University0.91+6.24vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.95+3.05vs Predicted
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4Florida State University1.62+0.52vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston1.98-1.46vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston1.26-0.58vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.12-1.48vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida0.25+0.20vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.59-1.20vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.74-3.29vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.31-1.41vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University0.44-4.26vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.02-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.817.0%1st Place
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8.24North Carolina State University0.913.9%1st Place
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6.05Old Dominion University0.958.5%1st Place
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4.52Florida State University1.6214.2%1st Place
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3.54College of Charleston1.9822.7%1st Place
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5.42College of Charleston1.2610.2%1st Place
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5.52University of Michigan1.1210.2%1st Place
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8.2University of South Florida0.253.6%1st Place
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7.8Christopher Newport University0.594.5%1st Place
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6.71University of California at Berkeley0.747.4%1st Place
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9.59Washington College-0.312.4%1st Place
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7.74Jacksonville University0.443.8%1st Place
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11.09Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.021.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celia Houston | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 8.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Joey Meagher | 14.2% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Charles Mckenzie | 22.7% | 20.0% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Alfortish | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Joe Serpa | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 7.9% |
| Luke Hayes | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| Katherine Olsen | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 21.2% | 18.8% |
| Patrick Barney | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Madeleine Adams | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 17.3% | 48.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.