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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University0.91+7.12vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.98+1.56vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.95+3.13vs Predicted
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4Florida State University1.62+0.44vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan1.12+0.68vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.59+1.82vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.26-1.76vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.74-1.27vs Predicted
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9Washington College-0.31+0.61vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81-3.45vs Predicted
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11Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.02+0.24vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University0.44-4.37vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida0.25-4.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.12North Carolina State University0.914.0%1st Place
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3.56College of Charleston1.9822.1%1st Place
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6.13Old Dominion University0.958.0%1st Place
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4.44Florida State University1.6215.4%1st Place
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5.68University of Michigan1.129.9%1st Place
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7.82Christopher Newport University0.594.7%1st Place
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5.24College of Charleston1.2611.2%1st Place
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6.73University of California at Berkeley0.746.8%1st Place
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9.61Washington College-0.312.1%1st Place
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6.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.817.2%1st Place
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11.24Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.021.1%1st Place
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7.63Jacksonville University0.444.5%1st Place
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8.27University of South Florida0.253.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hogan O'Donnell | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 6.4% |
| Charles Mckenzie | 22.1% | 18.7% | 17.1% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Joey Meagher | 15.4% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joe Serpa | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Luke Hayes | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 4.5% |
| Emily Alfortish | 11.2% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Katherine Olsen | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| Celia Houston | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Madeleine Adams | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 15.4% | 51.2% |
| Patrick Barney | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 4.2% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 3.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 8.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.