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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.98+2.71vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.12+3.75vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston1.26+2.41vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida0.25+4.32vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+0.62vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University0.91+2.37vs Predicted
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7Florida State University1.62-2.45vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.95-1.82vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.74-2.17vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.31-0.41vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.59-3.15vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University0.44-4.31vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.02-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.71College of Charleston1.9820.4%1st Place
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5.75University of Michigan1.1210.0%1st Place
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5.41College of Charleston1.2610.4%1st Place
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8.32University of South Florida0.253.9%1st Place
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5.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.0910.4%1st Place
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8.37North Carolina State University0.914.0%1st Place
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4.55Florida State University1.6214.9%1st Place
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6.18Old Dominion University0.957.3%1st Place
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6.83University of California at Berkeley0.746.2%1st Place
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9.59Washington College-0.312.5%1st Place
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7.85Christopher Newport University0.593.7%1st Place
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7.69Jacksonville University0.444.8%1st Place
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11.13Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.021.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Mckenzie | 20.4% | 18.4% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 10.0% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Emily Alfortish | 10.4% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 7.0% |
| Jack Derry | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 8.6% |
| Joey Meagher | 14.9% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Katherine Olsen | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| Luke Hayes | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 4.3% |
| Patrick Barney | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 4.8% |
| Madeleine Adams | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 50.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.