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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.98+2.73vs Predicted
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2Florida State University1.62+2.52vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston1.26+2.33vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University0.91+4.23vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+0.62vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.95+0.19vs Predicted
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7Washington College-0.31+2.85vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.74-1.21vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.12-3.23vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.25-1.73vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.59-3.18vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University0.44-4.29vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.02-1.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.73College of Charleston1.9821.2%1st Place
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4.52Florida State University1.6215.7%1st Place
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5.33College of Charleston1.2611.4%1st Place
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8.23North Carolina State University0.913.4%1st Place
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5.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.099.2%1st Place
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6.19Old Dominion University0.957.8%1st Place
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9.85Washington College-0.311.8%1st Place
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6.79University of California at Berkeley0.746.5%1st Place
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5.77University of Michigan1.129.4%1st Place
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8.27University of South Florida0.253.8%1st Place
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7.82Christopher Newport University0.594.4%1st Place
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7.71Jacksonville University0.444.6%1st Place
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11.17Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.020.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Mckenzie | 21.2% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joey Meagher | 15.7% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Emily Alfortish | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 5.9% |
| Jack Derry | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 20.9% |
| Katherine Olsen | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Joe Serpa | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 6.9% |
| Luke Hayes | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 6.0% |
| Patrick Barney | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 4.8% |
| Madeleine Adams | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 49.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.