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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.98+2.54vs Predicted
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2Florida State University1.62+2.44vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.59+4.58vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University0.44+3.54vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston1.26+0.23vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University0.91+2.18vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.68-0.14vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-2.54vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.12-3.30vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.25-1.80vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.31-1.69vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.74-5.28vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.94-0.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.54College of Charleston1.9822.9%1st Place
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4.44Florida State University1.6214.6%1st Place
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7.58Christopher Newport University0.594.7%1st Place
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7.54Jacksonville University0.444.6%1st Place
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5.23College of Charleston1.2611.5%1st Place
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8.18North Carolina State University0.913.9%1st Place
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6.86Old Dominion University0.686.4%1st Place
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5.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.099.9%1st Place
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5.7University of Michigan1.128.9%1st Place
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8.2University of South Florida0.253.1%1st Place
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9.31Washington College-0.312.9%1st Place
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6.72University of California at Berkeley0.746.1%1st Place
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12.24Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.940.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Mckenzie | 22.9% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Joey Meagher | 14.6% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% |
| Patrick Barney | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 2.2% |
| Emily Alfortish | 11.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 4.0% |
| Megan Geith | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 0.9% |
| Jack Derry | 9.9% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Joe Serpa | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 4.2% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 28.8% | 8.9% |
| Katherine Olsen | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Emily Gaskins | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 9.6% | 76.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.