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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.76vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.71+2.97vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.11+0.97vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.81+4.01vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University1.95+2.37vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech1.65+2.72vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University1.40+2.49vs Predicted
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8Penn State University1.35+1.48vs Predicted
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9Drexel University1.75-0.70vs Predicted
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10Villanova University1.15+0.28vs Predicted
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11William and Mary1.29-0.99vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.40+0.80vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.87-1.58vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute2.29-7.61vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester0.99-4.08vs Predicted
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16St. John's College-0.47-0.99vs Predicted
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17Stevens Institute of Technology0.65-4.89vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech1.65-9.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.76University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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4.97Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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3.97Fordham University3.110.2%1st Place
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8.01Princeton University1.810.1%1st Place
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7.37Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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8.72Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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9.49Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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9.48Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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8.3Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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10.28Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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10.01William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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12.8Columbia University0.400.0%1st Place
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11.42University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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6.39Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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10.92University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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15.01St. John's College-0.470.0%1st Place
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12.11Stevens Institute of Technology0.650.0%1st Place
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8.72Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 20.4% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Nunn | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 17.8% | 17.7% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gebb | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 5.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 4.4% | 2.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| David Alldian | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Guinn | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Maranto | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 19.1% | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Green | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Zeke Schumacher | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 15.7% | 49.8% | 0.0% |
| MacKenzie McGuckin | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.