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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+3.09vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+1.50vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+5.00vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.04+1.78vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.71+3.83vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.77-1.73vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.93+0.54vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.89vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.97-1.74vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.43-0.97vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.65-1.19vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.27-1.27vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.79-0.92vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-5.80vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.32-3.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09Georgetown University2.2017.2%1st Place
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3.5Cornell University2.3820.7%1st Place
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8.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.6%1st Place
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5.78U. S. Naval Academy2.0410.1%1st Place
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8.83Fordham University0.712.9%1st Place
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4.27University of Pennsylvania1.7715.8%1st Place
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7.54George Washington University0.935.7%1st Place
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8.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.3%1st Place
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7.26Old Dominion University0.975.6%1st Place
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9.03Columbia University0.433.2%1st Place
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9.81Christopher Newport University0.652.5%1st Place
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10.73SUNY Maritime College-0.271.7%1st Place
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12.08Washington College-0.791.1%1st Place
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8.2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.673.9%1st Place
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11.98Princeton University-0.321.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 17.2% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 20.7% | 20.5% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 15.8% | 16.2% | 15.0% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 7.6% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 15.4% | 13.6% |
| Imogene Nuss | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 17.8% | 31.9% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 18.8% | 30.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.