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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech1.65+7.20vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.71+2.84vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.73vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.81+3.90vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University1.95+2.18vs Predicted
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6Drexel University1.75+2.23vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.99+3.77vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University1.40+1.13vs Predicted
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9Penn State University1.35+0.68vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech1.65-1.80vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.69-2.85vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.11-8.02vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.87-1.81vs Predicted
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14Villanova University1.15-3.61vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology0.65-2.94vs Predicted
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16William and Mary1.29-6.28vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.40-4.19vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.47-2.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.2Virginia Tech1.650.1%1st Place
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4.84Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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3.73University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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7.9Princeton University1.810.1%1st Place
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7.18Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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8.23Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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10.77University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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9.13Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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9.68Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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8.2Virginia Tech1.650.1%1st Place
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8.15Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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3.98Fordham University3.110.2%1st Place
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11.19University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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10.39Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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12.06Stevens Institute of Technology0.650.0%1st Place
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9.72William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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12.81Columbia University0.400.0%1st Place
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15.04St. John's College-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Price | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Nunn | 13.0% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 20.2% | 18.7% | 15.6% | 14.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gebb | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.3% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 19.7% | 16.5% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Green | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| David Alldian | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| MacKenzie McGuckin | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 16.2% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| Scott Guinn | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Laura Maranto | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 19.5% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
| Zeke Schumacher | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 53.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.