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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.74vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.11+1.86vs Predicted
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3Monmouth University1.95+4.51vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University1.40+5.49vs Predicted
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5Penn State University1.35+4.44vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute2.29+0.52vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology0.65+5.04vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo0.87+3.08vs Predicted
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9William and Mary1.29+1.04vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.75-1.88vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech1.65-2.34vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.15-1.61vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.71-7.86vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.99-2.97vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech1.65-6.34vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.40-3.14vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.81-8.97vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.47-2.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.74University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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3.86Fordham University3.110.2%1st Place
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7.51Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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9.49Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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9.44Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.52Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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12.04Stevens Institute of Technology0.650.0%1st Place
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11.08University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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10.04William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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8.12Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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8.66Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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10.39Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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5.14Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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11.03University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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8.66Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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12.86Columbia University0.400.0%1st Place
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8.03Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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15.05St. John's College-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 22.1% | 18.4% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 20.6% | 17.5% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MacKenzie McGuckin | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Green | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Guinn | 1.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alldian | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Charles Nunn | 12.7% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Maranto | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 18.8% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gebb | 4.6% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Zeke Schumacher | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 51.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.