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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.04+4.69vs Predicted
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2George Washington University0.93+5.66vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+0.91vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38-0.46vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.12vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+2.09vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.71+1.82vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.95vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.77-4.69vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.65-0.08vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.97-4.00vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.43-2.80vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.27-2.24vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.32-1.98vs Predicted
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15Washington College-0.79-2.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.69U. S. Naval Academy2.049.3%1st Place
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7.66George Washington University0.935.5%1st Place
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3.91Georgetown University2.2017.0%1st Place
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3.54Cornell University2.3822.4%1st Place
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8.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.2%1st Place
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8.09St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.2%1st Place
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8.82Fordham University0.713.8%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.7%1st Place
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4.31University of Pennsylvania1.7715.2%1st Place
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9.92Christopher Newport University0.652.2%1st Place
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7.0Old Dominion University0.976.2%1st Place
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9.2Columbia University0.433.1%1st Place
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10.76SUNY Maritime College-0.271.5%1st Place
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12.02Princeton University-0.321.1%1st Place
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12.02Washington College-0.790.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Blauvelt | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.0% | 17.7% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 22.4% | 19.0% | 15.9% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 3.7% |
| Sofia Segalla | 15.2% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 13.9% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 32.6% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 18.9% | 29.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.