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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
27
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+5.36vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.59+4.38vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+5.63vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.77-0.73vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.48+2.28vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.98+3.14vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.58+4.10vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University0.53+3.32vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.03+4.81vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.68+1.23vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+8.04vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.43-0.36vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-3.43vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69+3.76vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-2.20vs Predicted
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16Santa Clara University-1.15+3.49vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.03+1.97vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-0.25-2.90vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14+1.39vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis-0.19-5.46vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-11.34vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-0.51-5.93vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-1.46-2.22vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.45-2.28vs Predicted
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25University of California at Davis-2.03-2.22vs Predicted
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26University of California at Irvine-0.36-10.47vs Predicted
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27University of California at Davis-2.20-3.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.36University of California at Santa Barbara1.449.0%1st Place
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6.38San Diego State University1.5910.1%1st Place
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8.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.135.5%1st Place
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3.27University of Southern California2.7727.3%1st Place
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7.28University of California at Los Angeles1.486.9%1st Place
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9.14University of California at Berkeley0.984.9%1st Place
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11.1University of California at Berkeley0.583.6%1st Place
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11.32San Diego State University0.533.0%1st Place
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13.81University of California at Los Angeles-0.032.4%1st Place
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11.23University of California at San Diego0.683.1%1st Place
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19.04University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.4%1st Place
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11.64University of California at Los Angeles0.434.0%1st Place
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9.57University of California at Santa Cruz0.864.8%1st Place
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17.76University of California at Santa Cruz-0.690.9%1st Place
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12.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.272.1%1st Place
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19.49Santa Clara University-1.150.5%1st Place
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18.97University of California at Los Angeles-1.030.4%1st Place
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15.1University of California at Berkeley-0.251.5%1st Place
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20.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.140.7%1st Place
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14.54University of California at Davis-0.191.3%1st Place
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9.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.834.5%1st Place
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16.07University of California at San Diego-0.511.4%1st Place
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20.78University of California at San Diego-1.460.4%1st Place
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21.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.450.1%1st Place
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22.78University of California at Davis-2.030.1%1st Place
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15.53University of California at Irvine-0.361.1%1st Place
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23.62University of California at Davis-2.200.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Buckner | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Hou | 27.3% | 20.9% | 15.6% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Spector | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Noah Barton | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| Zack Taylor | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Leitner | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Samuel Groom | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bennett Dorsey | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 3.7% |
| samson grunwald | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jack Kelly | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jack Kisling | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 9.0% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 13.6% |
| Shanay Patel | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 25.3% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Lewald | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 34.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.