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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+3.01vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University0.97+5.22vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.16vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.71+4.90vs Predicted
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5Washington College-0.79+7.10vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+2.04vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+1.77vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.27+2.89vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.38-5.40vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.93-2.38vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.04-5.35vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-3.96vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.65-3.06vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.43-5.11vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.32-2.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01Georgetown University2.2018.2%1st Place
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7.22Old Dominion University0.975.6%1st Place
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4.16University of Pennsylvania1.7717.4%1st Place
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8.9Fordham University0.712.6%1st Place
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12.1Washington College-0.790.8%1st Place
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8.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.913.9%1st Place
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8.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.4%1st Place
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10.89SUNY Maritime College-0.271.7%1st Place
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3.6Cornell University2.3820.9%1st Place
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7.62George Washington University0.934.8%1st Place
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5.65U. S. Naval Academy2.049.7%1st Place
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8.04St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.4%1st Place
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9.94Christopher Newport University0.651.9%1st Place
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8.89Columbia University0.433.5%1st Place
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12.15Princeton University-0.321.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 18.2% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Sofia Segalla | 17.4% | 17.1% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 18.3% | 30.6% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 3.4% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 14.5% |
| Bridget Green | 20.9% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 7.4% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 13.6% | 17.3% | 31.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.