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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.85+3.88vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+2.86vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.52+2.81vs Predicted
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4University of Miami3.69+4.29vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.76+3.04vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College3.63+2.59vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University4.78-2.11vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University3.92-0.46vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College4.15-2.20vs Predicted
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10University of Washington2.87+1.24vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine2.83+0.23vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.50-2.77vs Predicted
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13University of Notre Dame-0.25+4.01vs Predicted
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14University of Minnesota0.20+2.51vs Predicted
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15University of Saint Thomas1.26+0.01vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.14-2.84vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-11.06vs Predicted
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18University of Texas2.50-6.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88Yale University4.850.1%1st Place
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4.86St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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5.81Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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8.29University of Miami3.690.0%1st Place
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8.04Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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8.59Eckerd College3.630.0%1st Place
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4.89Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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7.54Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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6.8SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.24University of Washington2.870.0%1st Place
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11.23University of California at Irvine2.830.0%1st Place
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9.23Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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17.01University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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16.51University of Minnesota0.200.0%1st Place
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15.01University of Saint Thomas1.260.0%1st Place
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13.16Tulane University2.140.0%1st Place
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5.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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11.96University of Texas2.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Barrows | 14.1% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 13.3% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Hernandez | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Meier | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 14.0% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Glen Stellmacher | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Jack Porter | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John O'Brien | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 8.7% | 24.3% | 56.8% |
| Joe Lund | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 15.3% | 35.4% | 34.2% |
| Medora Sletten | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 30.3% | 24.0% | 6.6% |
| Chris Raff | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 19.0% | 17.5% | 7.9% | 1.6% |
| Samuel Blouin | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Proctor | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.