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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.74+4.00vs Predicted
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2Georgia Institute of Technology1.55+6.27vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College2.20+3.62vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.56+1.56vs Predicted
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5Clemson University1.88+2.64vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.54-0.22vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida3.15-3.14vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida2.24-1.55vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.30-2.60vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College2.14-3.13vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-3.81vs Predicted
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12University of Maryland1.00-2.04vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University-0.48-0.44vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.70-1.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.0College of Charleston2.740.1%1st Place
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8.27Georgia Institute of Technology1.550.0%1st Place
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6.62Eckerd College2.200.1%1st Place
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5.56College of Charleston2.560.1%1st Place
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7.64Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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5.78Jacksonville University2.540.1%1st Place
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3.86University of South Florida3.150.2%1st Place
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6.45University of South Florida2.240.1%1st Place
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6.4College of Charleston2.300.1%1st Place
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6.87Eckerd College2.140.1%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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9.96University of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
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12.56North Carolina State University-0.480.0%1st Place
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12.86University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Mackey | 12.9% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Marten Kendrick | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 6.7% | 1.1% |
| Erik Brydges | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Kyle Sutter | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Ian Ikeda | 9.0% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 20.9% | 19.0% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alison Knoles | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Hause | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Seth Barrows | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Austin Neuman | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Crouse | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 23.3% | 14.9% | 5.1% |
| Cole Barclay | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 8.8% | 34.4% | 41.0% |
| Andrew Kelley | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 8.5% | 29.4% | 51.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.