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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.74+3.99vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.54+3.39vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+4.11vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.14+2.91vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.30+1.41vs Predicted
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6Georgia Institute of Technology1.55+2.64vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida2.24-0.76vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.15-3.98vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.56-3.37vs Predicted
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10Clemson University1.88-2.37vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.20-4.35vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University-0.48+0.65vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland1.00-3.13vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.70-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.99College of Charleston2.740.1%1st Place
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5.39Jacksonville University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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6.91Eckerd College2.140.1%1st Place
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6.41College of Charleston2.300.1%1st Place
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8.64Georgia Institute of Technology1.550.0%1st Place
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6.24University of South Florida2.240.1%1st Place
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4.02University of South Florida3.150.2%1st Place
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5.63College of Charleston2.560.1%1st Place
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7.63Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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6.65Eckerd College2.200.1%1st Place
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12.65North Carolina State University-0.480.0%1st Place
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9.87University of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
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12.87University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Mackey | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ian Ikeda | 11.2% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Austin Neuman | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Seth Barrows | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Hause | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Marten Kendrick | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 7.2% | 1.1% |
| Alison Knoles | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 20.3% | 17.2% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Sutter | 10.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Erik Brydges | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Cole Barclay | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 36.1% | 41.7% |
| Joseph Crouse | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 25.0% | 14.8% | 4.5% |
| Andrew Kelley | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 30.5% | 50.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.