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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+2.57vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+2.00vs Predicted
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3George Washington University0.93+4.66vs Predicted
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4Columbia University0.43+5.12vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+2.95vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.97+1.19vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.04-1.39vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.77-3.80vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-0.11vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.32+2.10vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.65-1.22vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.79+0.07vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-4.80vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.71-5.13vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.27-4.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57Cornell University2.3821.6%1st Place
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4.0Georgetown University2.2018.2%1st Place
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7.66George Washington University0.934.5%1st Place
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9.12Columbia University0.432.5%1st Place
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7.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.9%1st Place
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7.19Old Dominion University0.975.5%1st Place
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5.61U. S. Naval Academy2.049.2%1st Place
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4.2University of Pennsylvania1.7716.7%1st Place
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8.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.1%1st Place
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12.1Princeton University-0.321.0%1st Place
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9.78Christopher Newport University0.652.2%1st Place
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12.07Washington College-0.790.9%1st Place
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8.2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.2%1st Place
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8.87Fordham University0.713.6%1st Place
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10.79SUNY Maritime College-0.271.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bridget Green | 21.6% | 19.6% | 16.5% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Piper Holthus | 18.2% | 16.5% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Avery Canavan | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
Eva DeCastro | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.2% |
Elizabeth Starck | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
Gianna Dewey | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
Eva Blauvelt | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Sofia Segalla | 16.7% | 15.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Annika VanderHorst | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 3.5% |
Carly Mraz | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 16.9% | 30.9% |
Grace Watlington | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 7.6% |
Imogene Nuss | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 18.4% | 31.1% |
Cho-Cho Williams | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
Lizzie Cochran | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
Isabelle Gautier | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 15.6% | 13.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.