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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.93vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College4.15+5.05vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+2.91vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University3.92+3.52vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University4.78-0.10vs Predicted
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6Harvard University4.52-0.29vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.14+6.03vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.50+0.98vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.76-0.91vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.85-5.14vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine2.83+0.26vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College3.63-3.13vs Predicted
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13University of Washington2.87-2.13vs Predicted
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14University of Minnesota0.20+2.51vs Predicted
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15University of Miami3.69-6.64vs Predicted
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16University of Texas2.50-3.82vs Predicted
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17University of Notre Dame-0.25+0.12vs Predicted
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18University of Saint Thomas1.26-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.93St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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7.05SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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5.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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7.52Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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4.9Roger Williams University4.780.2%1st Place
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5.71Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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13.03Tulane University2.140.0%1st Place
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8.98Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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8.09Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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4.86Yale University4.850.1%1st Place
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11.26University of California at Irvine2.830.0%1st Place
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8.87Eckerd College3.630.0%1st Place
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10.87University of Washington2.870.0%1st Place
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16.51University of Minnesota0.200.0%1st Place
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8.36University of Miami3.690.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Texas2.500.0%1st Place
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17.12University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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14.86University of Saint Thomas1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 13.6% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 5.5% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 9.5% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 15.2% | 15.0% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Raff | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 20.6% | 19.7% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
| Nick Dugdale | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Barrows | 14.4% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Porter | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Meier | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Glen Stellmacher | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Joe Lund | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 13.0% | 37.6% | 33.7% |
| David Hernandez | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Proctor | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 15.1% | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| John O'Brien | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 7.5% | 24.9% | 58.9% |
| Medora Sletten | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 32.7% | 23.2% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.