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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.04+4.64vs Predicted
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2Columbia University0.43+7.14vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+0.49vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.33vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20-1.06vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.71+2.87vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.93+0.60vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.97-0.79vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-0.96vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.32+2.03vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-2.90vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.12vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.27-2.09vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.79-2.05vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.65-5.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64U. S. Naval Academy2.049.2%1st Place
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9.14Columbia University0.433.0%1st Place
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3.49Cornell University2.3823.2%1st Place
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4.33University of Pennsylvania1.7714.8%1st Place
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3.94Georgetown University2.2017.8%1st Place
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8.87Fordham University0.712.6%1st Place
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7.6George Washington University0.935.1%1st Place
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7.21Old Dominion University0.976.0%1st Place
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8.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.2%1st Place
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12.03Princeton University-0.321.2%1st Place
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8.1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.1%1st Place
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8.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.2%1st Place
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10.91SUNY Maritime College-0.271.5%1st Place
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11.95Washington College-0.791.6%1st Place
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9.87Christopher Newport University0.652.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Blauvelt | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Bridget Green | 23.2% | 18.7% | 16.4% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 14.8% | 15.0% | 14.9% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.8% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 18.5% | 30.8% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 16.4% | 14.6% |
| Imogene Nuss | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 18.6% | 29.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.