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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+5.00vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College4.15+5.06vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University4.78+2.03vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.85+0.68vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.76+3.07vs Predicted
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6University of Washington2.81+5.28vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine2.83+4.10vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-3.27vs Predicted
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9Harvard University4.52-3.37vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University3.92-2.15vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College3.63-2.31vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.14+1.29vs Predicted
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13University of Miami3.69-4.74vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.50-5.22vs Predicted
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15University of Texas2.50-2.93vs Predicted
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16University of Saint Thomas1.26-1.07vs Predicted
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17University of Minnesota0.20-0.39vs Predicted
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18University of Notre Dame-0.25-1.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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7.06SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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5.03Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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4.68Yale University4.850.2%1st Place
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8.07Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Washington2.810.0%1st Place
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11.1University of California at Irvine2.830.0%1st Place
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4.73St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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5.63Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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7.85Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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8.69Eckerd College3.630.0%1st Place
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13.29Tulane University2.140.0%1st Place
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8.26University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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8.78Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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12.07University of Texas2.500.0%1st Place
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14.93University of Saint Thomas1.260.0%1st Place
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16.61University of Minnesota0.200.0%1st Place
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16.95University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Blouin | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Barrows | 15.8% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Darrin | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Jack Porter | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 14.7% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Meier | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Chris Raff | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 20.0% | 19.5% | 6.8% | 1.9% |
| David Hernandez | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Scott Proctor | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 13.8% | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Medora Sletten | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 15.2% | 31.8% | 21.1% | 7.4% |
| Joe Lund | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 11.6% | 37.6% | 36.3% |
| John O'Brien | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 9.1% | 26.9% | 53.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.