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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+7.53vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.36+5.16vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.55+3.43vs Predicted
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4Fordham University4.26+3.35vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.12+2.95vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.16+6.06vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College4.05+1.24vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.95+0.64vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.49+1.66vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.70+0.07vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.89+2.15vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.05+0.81vs Predicted
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13Tufts University4.08-4.95vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-4.36vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.65-5.04vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College3.78-6.51vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.67-7.00vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-7.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.53St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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7.16Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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6.43Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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7.35Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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7.95Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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12.06University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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8.24Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.64Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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10.66University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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10.07Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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13.15Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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12.81SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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8.05Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.96College of Charleston3.650.0%1st Place
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9.49Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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10.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Nevin Snow | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Graham Landy | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Olin Paine | 9.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Raul Rios | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.1% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 14.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| William Macdonald | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Stocke | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% |
| Brady Stagg | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.5% |
| Tony Collins | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 23.0% |
| Nick Valente | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 20.8% |
| William Haeger | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Louis Padnos | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Jake Reynolds | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% |
| Kevin Martland | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Michael Grove | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% |
| David Alfonso | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.