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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University4.78+4.06vs Predicted
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2Eckerd College3.63+6.83vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+2.94vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.85+0.71vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College4.15+1.79vs Predicted
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6Harvard University4.52-0.27vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.76+1.16vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University3.92-0.44vs Predicted
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9University of Miami3.69-0.68vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-5.05vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.14+2.11vs Predicted
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12University of Washington2.81-0.48vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine2.83-2.02vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.50-5.25vs Predicted
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15University of Texas2.50-2.92vs Predicted
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16University of Notre Dame-0.25+1.05vs Predicted
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17University of Saint Thomas1.26-1.97vs Predicted
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18University of Minnesota0.20-1.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.06Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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8.83Eckerd College3.630.0%1st Place
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5.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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4.71Yale University4.850.1%1st Place
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6.79SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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5.73Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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8.16Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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7.56Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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8.32University of Miami3.690.0%1st Place
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4.95St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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13.11Tulane University2.140.0%1st Place
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11.52University of Washington2.810.0%1st Place
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10.98University of California at Irvine2.830.0%1st Place
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8.75Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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12.08University of Texas2.500.0%1st Place
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17.05University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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15.03University of Saint Thomas1.260.0%1st Place
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16.44University of Minnesota0.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cy Thompson | 12.9% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Meier | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Barrows | 14.3% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Hernandez | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 14.5% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Raff | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 21.5% | 18.4% | 7.1% | 1.4% |
| Hannah Darrin | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 14.1% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack Porter | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 12.6% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Nick Dugdale | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Scott Proctor | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| John O'Brien | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 9.3% | 23.5% | 58.1% |
| Medora Sletten | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 30.6% | 22.7% | 8.5% |
| Joe Lund | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 13.0% | 40.5% | 31.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.