Race 2A

bryson-women-fleet-race

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Michelle Lahrkamp 38.2% 25.2% 17.2% 10.6% 4.8% 2.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercy Tangredi 7.0% 8.2% 9.8% 11.7% 13.0% 12.0% 12.2% 9.6% 8.6% 4.8% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Stephanie Houck 16.2% 19.1% 16.9% 17.2% 11.1% 8.9% 5.0% 3.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Marianna Shand 10.2% 11.9% 13.1% 11.6% 13.9% 13.0% 9.8% 8.3% 4.5% 2.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Hayden Lahr 3.3% 4.8% 4.9% 6.7% 8.8% 8.6% 10.7% 11.8% 11.8% 12.3% 11.5% 4.3% 0.4%
Molly Coghlin 7.3% 7.8% 11.6% 12.3% 12.2% 11.8% 11.7% 9.8% 7.3% 5.5% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Svenja Leonard 3.5% 3.9% 5.7% 5.8% 6.0% 8.1% 10.1% 11.8% 12.8% 14.1% 12.1% 5.8% 0.4%
Kingsley Ehrich 4.9% 6.0% 7.3% 6.9% 10.1% 11.2% 11.3% 11.2% 11.2% 10.7% 6.3% 2.5% 0.4%
Emily Smith 3.4% 4.5% 4.9% 6.2% 7.0% 8.7% 9.4% 11.8% 13.5% 14.9% 10.4% 4.7% 0.6%
Florence Duff 4.2% 5.4% 5.5% 6.3% 8.1% 8.7% 10.2% 10.9% 12.7% 12.8% 10.9% 4.0% 0.4%
Althea White 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.6% 4.1% 5.9% 7.0% 14.1% 45.1% 13.6%
Audra Spokas-jaros 1.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.7% 3.0% 4.3% 5.7% 6.2% 8.9% 12.8% 25.7% 21.3% 3.9%
madeline rivera 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.7% 2.8% 11.3% 80.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.