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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+7.90vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.78+7.64vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.12+5.20vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.70+5.68vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.82vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.16+6.08vs Predicted
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7Fordham University4.26+0.38vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University4.36-1.07vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College4.05-0.79vs Predicted
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10Tufts University4.08-1.57vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+0.11vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.61vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College2.89-0.12vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-5.96vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.65-5.12vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.05-3.44vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida3.49-6.20vs Predicted
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18Yale University4.55-11.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.9Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.64Connecticut College3.780.0%1st Place
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8.2Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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9.68Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.82U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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12.08University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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7.38Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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6.93Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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8.21Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.43Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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11.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.0%1st Place
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10.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.0%1st Place
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12.88Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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8.04St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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9.88College of Charleston3.650.0%1st Place
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12.56SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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10.8University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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6.09Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Kevin Martland | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Raul Rios | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Brady Stagg | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% |
| Michael Grove | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% |
| Jack Swikart | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 13.9% |
| Olin Paine | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Nevin Snow | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Wefer | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| William Haeger | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| David Alfonso | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% |
| Louis Padnos | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% |
| Tony Collins | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 19.9% |
| Fletcher Sims | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Jake Reynolds | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Nick Valente | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 18.8% |
| Christopher Stocke | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% |
| Graham Landy | 10.5% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.