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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+7.91vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.78+7.62vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.12+5.19vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+5.79vs Predicted
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5Fordham University4.26+2.45vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+4.96vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.93vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.70+1.72vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.72vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.49+0.92vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.14vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.65-1.65vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College4.05-4.92vs Predicted
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14Yale University4.55-7.97vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University4.36-8.09vs Predicted
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16Tufts University4.08-7.80vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College3.05-4.40vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College2.89-5.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.91Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.62Connecticut College3.780.0%1st Place
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8.19Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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9.79U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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7.45Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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10.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.0%1st Place
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9.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.0%1st Place
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9.72Old Dominion University3.700.0%1st Place
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8.28St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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10.92University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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12.14University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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10.35College of Charleston3.650.0%1st Place
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8.08Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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6.03Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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6.91Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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8.2Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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12.6SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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12.91Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Kevin Martland | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Raul Rios | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Michael Grove | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Olin Paine | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| David Alfonso | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% |
| Louis Padnos | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% |
| Brady Stagg | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% |
| Fletcher Sims | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 15.3% |
| Jake Reynolds | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% |
| Matthew Wefer | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Graham Landy | 11.4% | 13.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Nevin Snow | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| William Haeger | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Nick Valente | 2.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 18.3% |
| Tony Collins | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 20.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.