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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.92vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University3.92+5.81vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.85+1.89vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University4.78+0.90vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.76+3.05vs Predicted
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6University of Miami3.69+2.42vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-1.20vs Predicted
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8University of Washington2.81+3.11vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.50-0.04vs Predicted
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10University of Texas2.50+2.29vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College3.63-2.32vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine2.83-0.62vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College4.15-6.24vs Predicted
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14Harvard University4.52-8.50vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota0.20+1.56vs Predicted
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16University of Saint Thomas1.26-1.01vs Predicted
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17University of Notre Dame-0.25+0.06vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.14-5.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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7.81Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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4.89Yale University4.850.1%1st Place
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4.9Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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8.05Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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8.42University of Miami3.690.0%1st Place
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5.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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11.11University of Washington2.810.0%1st Place
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8.96Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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12.29University of Texas2.500.0%1st Place
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8.68Eckerd College3.630.0%1st Place
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11.38University of California at Irvine2.830.0%1st Place
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6.76SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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5.5Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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16.56University of Minnesota0.200.0%1st Place
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14.99University of Saint Thomas1.260.0%1st Place
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17.06University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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12.92Tulane University2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 13.2% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Barrows | 12.7% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 15.0% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Hernandez | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Darrin | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Nick Dugdale | 3.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Proctor | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 15.0% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Meier | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Porter | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Lund | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 12.3% | 38.8% | 34.0% |
| Medora Sletten | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 14.8% | 30.5% | 22.6% | 7.6% |
| John O'Brien | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 8.7% | 25.3% | 57.0% |
| Chris Raff | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 21.7% | 16.9% | 5.5% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.