← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Rhode Island3.05+7.92vs Predicted
-
2Brown University3.88+3.77vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University3.79+3.08vs Predicted
-
4University of Vermont3.41+3.25vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-0.05vs Predicted
-
6Boston University3.00+2.98vs Predicted
-
7University of Virginia3.01+1.95vs Predicted
-
8Salve Regina University2.54+2.67vs Predicted
-
9Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.47+5.34vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University2.77+0.13vs Predicted
-
11Bowdoin College2.90-1.53vs Predicted
-
12Northeastern University3.26-3.73vs Predicted
-
13University of Buffalo2.44-2.03vs Predicted
-
14Connecticut College2.59-3.78vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-5.39vs Predicted
-
16Washington College2.01-3.26vs Predicted
-
17George Washington University3.49-9.84vs Predicted
-
18Syracuse University0.38-1.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.92University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
-
5.77Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
-
6.08Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
-
7.25University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
-
4.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.2%1st Place
-
8.98Boston University3.000.1%1st Place
-
8.95University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
-
10.67Salve Regina University2.540.0%1st Place
-
14.34Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.470.0%1st Place
-
10.13Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
-
9.47Bowdoin College2.900.0%1st Place
-
8.27Northeastern University3.260.1%1st Place
-
10.97University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
-
10.22Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
-
9.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
-
12.74Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
-
7.16George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
-
16.51Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Armstrong | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Pearson Potts | 9.0% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 16.3% | 15.2% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Fraser | 5.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Robert Lippincott | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 1.7% |
| Kyle Brego | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 13.0% | 27.2% | 17.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 5.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 0.7% |
| Peter Edmunds | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Griffin Orr | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 2.9% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 16.3% | 7.6% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 8.1% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 12.8% | 65.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.