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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+2.61vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.04+3.77vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.27vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20+0.02vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.97+2.17vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+2.15vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.93+0.42vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-0.04vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.71-0.12vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.32+2.01vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.65-1.13vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.27-1.28vs Predicted
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13Columbia University0.43-3.93vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.79-1.89vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-6.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.61Cornell University2.3820.9%1st Place
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5.77U. S. Naval Academy2.048.9%1st Place
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4.27University of Pennsylvania1.7716.4%1st Place
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4.02Georgetown University2.2018.1%1st Place
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7.17Old Dominion University0.976.2%1st Place
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8.15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.673.9%1st Place
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7.42George Washington University0.935.4%1st Place
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7.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.3%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University0.713.5%1st Place
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12.01Princeton University-0.320.8%1st Place
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9.87Christopher Newport University0.652.5%1st Place
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10.72SUNY Maritime College-0.271.2%1st Place
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9.07Columbia University0.433.5%1st Place
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12.11Washington College-0.791.1%1st Place
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8.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 20.9% | 18.6% | 16.4% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.4% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 18.1% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 3.5% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 18.1% | 30.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 7.4% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 13.7% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Imogene Nuss | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 18.8% | 31.6% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.