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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University4.52+4.79vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.50+7.12vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College4.15+3.94vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University3.92+3.44vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-0.31vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.76+2.02vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.85-2.34vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University4.78-3.21vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-3.35vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine2.17+2.96vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.69-2.64vs Predicted
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12University of Washington2.81-0.72vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College3.63-4.66vs Predicted
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14University of Texas2.50-2.28vs Predicted
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15University of Notre Dame-0.25+2.04vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.14-3.05vs Predicted
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17University of Saint Thomas1.26-2.11vs Predicted
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18University of Minnesota0.20-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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9.12Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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6.94SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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7.44Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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4.69St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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8.02Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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4.66Yale University4.850.2%1st Place
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4.79Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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5.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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12.96University of California at Irvine2.170.0%1st Place
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8.36University of Miami3.690.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Washington2.810.0%1st Place
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8.34Eckerd College3.630.0%1st Place
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11.72University of Texas2.500.0%1st Place
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17.04University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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12.95Tulane University2.140.0%1st Place
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14.89University of Saint Thomas1.260.0%1st Place
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16.37University of Minnesota0.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Palmer | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 16.2% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Barrows | 15.1% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 14.6% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hoover | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 19.3% | 17.4% | 5.6% | 0.7% |
| David Hernandez | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Darrin | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Meier | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Proctor | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| John O'Brien | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 8.0% | 22.4% | 58.9% |
| Chris Raff | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 16.2% | 18.8% | 15.1% | 5.6% | 1.5% |
| Medora Sletten | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 28.9% | 22.3% | 7.3% |
| Joe Lund | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 13.2% | 39.3% | 31.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.