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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.04+4.72vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+6.04vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.32vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.97+3.22vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20-1.07vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.71+2.92vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+1.10vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.65+1.94vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.27+1.70vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.18vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.93-3.37vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.32+0.01vs Predicted
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13Columbia University0.43-3.91vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.79-1.92vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.38-11.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.72U. S. Naval Academy2.049.0%1st Place
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8.04St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.0%1st Place
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4.32University of Pennsylvania1.7715.3%1st Place
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7.22Old Dominion University0.975.5%1st Place
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3.93Georgetown University2.2019.2%1st Place
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8.92Fordham University0.712.5%1st Place
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8.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.0%1st Place
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9.94Christopher Newport University0.652.7%1st Place
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10.7SUNY Maritime College-0.272.1%1st Place
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8.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.8%1st Place
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7.63George Washington University0.935.1%1st Place
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12.01Princeton University-0.321.2%1st Place
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9.09Columbia University0.433.2%1st Place
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12.08Washington College-0.791.0%1st Place
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3.49Cornell University2.3822.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Blauvelt | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Sofia Segalla | 15.3% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Piper Holthus | 19.2% | 17.3% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.3% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 15.0% | 14.8% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 18.9% | 28.6% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Imogene Nuss | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 18.1% | 31.4% |
| Bridget Green | 22.1% | 18.6% | 17.3% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.