← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy1.18+5.28vs Predicted
-
2Columbia University0.44+5.77vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University1.86+1.75vs Predicted
-
4Old Dominion University1.52+1.02vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+1.29vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.79-2.00vs Predicted
-
7George Washington University1.07-0.33vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania1.16-1.29vs Predicted
-
9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-2.13vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College-0.52+0.25vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University-0.35-1.01vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-1.94vs Predicted
-
13Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.85vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University-0.97-1.71vs Predicted
-
15Washington College-2.27-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.28U. S. Naval Academy1.187.0%1st Place
-
7.77Columbia University0.445.5%1st Place
-
4.75Georgetown University1.8614.9%1st Place
-
5.02Old Dominion University1.5212.2%1st Place
-
6.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.3%1st Place
-
4.0Cornell University1.7917.8%1st Place
-
6.67George Washington University1.077.4%1st Place
-
6.71University of Pennsylvania1.167.8%1st Place
-
6.87St. Mary's College of Maryland0.837.4%1st Place
-
10.25SUNY Maritime College-0.522.4%1st Place
-
9.99Fordham University-0.352.4%1st Place
-
10.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.6%1st Place
-
9.15Christopher Newport University-0.842.9%1st Place
-
12.29Princeton University-0.970.9%1st Place
-
13.9Washington College-2.270.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.9% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 17.8% | 18.9% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 16.7% | 14.8% | 4.3% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 2.9% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 12.8% | 4.4% |
| Laura Smith | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 6.6% | 1.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 31.4% | 20.5% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 15.3% | 65.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.