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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington2.79+5.65vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+7.04vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii3.68+1.04vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay1.63+7.02vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy3.09+0.83vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.90-2.50vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay1.63+4.02vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.60+3.16vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University1.87+1.31vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+2.65vs Predicted
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11University of Victoria2.29-2.64vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley2.12-2.95vs Predicted
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13University of Oregon0.76+1.47vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California2.64-7.04vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38+0.45vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University2.20-8.29vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles0.44-2.92vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine1.71-8.40vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis0.45-4.88vs Predicted
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21Northwestern University1.27-9.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.65University of Washington2.790.1%1st Place
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9.04University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.0%1st Place
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4.04University of Hawaii3.680.2%1st Place
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11.02California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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5.83California Poly Maritime Academy3.090.1%1st Place
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3.5Stanford University3.900.3%1st Place
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11.02California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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11.16University of California at San Diego1.600.0%1st Place
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10.31Western Washington University1.870.0%1st Place
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12.65University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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8.36University of Victoria2.290.0%1st Place
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9.05University of California at Berkeley2.120.0%1st Place
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14.47University of Oregon0.760.0%1st Place
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6.96University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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15.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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8.71Santa Clara University2.200.0%1st Place
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15.08University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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10.6University of California at Irvine1.710.0%1st Place
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15.12University of California at Davis0.450.0%1st Place
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11.99Northwestern University1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Haelsig | 5.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Stokes | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Pokras | 19.4% | 16.5% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 1.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Chris Vilicich | 7.8% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 25.6% | 17.7% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 1.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Paul Foley | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Abel | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Travis Benton | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Fritsen | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 16.3% | 14.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 17.4% | 24.8% | 0.0% |
| JOHN CONNOR BATHEN | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 22.6% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| William Emberley | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 16.5% | 21.6% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Bruce | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.