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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+8.04vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.68+2.05vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.90+0.52vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy3.09+1.63vs Predicted
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5Santa Clara University2.20+4.01vs Predicted
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6University of Victoria2.29+2.36vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay1.63+4.08vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.64-0.67vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley2.12+0.01vs Predicted
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10University of Washington2.79-3.52vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine1.71-0.33vs Predicted
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12University of Oregon0.76+2.50vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-0.33vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay1.63-2.92vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38+0.46vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University1.87-6.00vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego1.60-6.03vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles0.44-2.91vs Predicted
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20Northwestern University1.27-7.71vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis0.45-6.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.04University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.0%1st Place
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4.05University of Hawaii3.680.2%1st Place
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3.52Stanford University3.900.2%1st Place
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5.63California Poly Maritime Academy3.090.1%1st Place
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9.01Santa Clara University2.200.0%1st Place
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8.36University of Victoria2.290.1%1st Place
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11.08California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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7.33University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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9.01University of California at Berkeley2.120.0%1st Place
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6.48University of Washington2.790.1%1st Place
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10.67University of California at Irvine1.710.0%1st Place
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14.5University of Oregon0.760.0%1st Place
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12.67University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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11.08California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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15.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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10.0Western Washington University1.870.0%1st Place
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10.97University of California at San Diego1.600.0%1st Place
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15.09University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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12.29Northwestern University1.270.0%1st Place
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14.84University of California at Davis0.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Stokes | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Pokras | 19.6% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 23.0% | 19.2% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Vilicich | 9.3% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JOHN CONNOR BATHEN | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Abel | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Travis Benton | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Karl Haelsig | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Fritsen | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 16.8% | 14.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 16.6% | 25.7% | 0.0% |
| Paul Foley | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 23.6% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Bruce | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| William Emberley | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 16.4% | 19.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.