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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+4.08vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.70+1.25vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego1.81+6.27vs Predicted
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4University of Washington2.25+3.49vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.48+5.72vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.84+2.97vs Predicted
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7Santa Clara University2.22+0.55vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.47-1.15vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy2.38-3.17vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.82+2.07vs Predicted
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12University of Victoria0.72+1.52vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.25vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.50+0.06vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University1.28-3.59vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii2.32-8.83vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine0.90-4.27vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay0.50-3.94vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis0.83-6.04vs Predicted
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20Western Washington University1.12-8.22vs Predicted
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21University of Oregon0.46-6.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.08University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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3.25Stanford University3.700.3%1st Place
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9.27University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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7.49University of Washington2.250.1%1st Place
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10.72University of California at Berkeley1.480.0%1st Place
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8.97Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.840.0%1st Place
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7.55Santa Clara University2.220.1%1st Place
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6.85University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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6.83California Poly Maritime Academy2.380.1%1st Place
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13.07University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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13.52University of Victoria0.720.0%1st Place
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13.25University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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14.06California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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11.41Northwestern University1.280.0%1st Place
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7.17University of Hawaii2.320.1%1st Place
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12.73University of California at Irvine0.900.0%1st Place
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14.06California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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12.96University of California at Davis0.830.0%1st Place
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11.78Western Washington University1.120.0%1st Place
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14.04University of Oregon0.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Long | 12.1% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 27.9% | 18.8% | 16.4% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kris Thompson | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Alison Gillum | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Wood | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lamb | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Manuel Gomez | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Anderson | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Giacomo Paoletti | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kate Andersen | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Halliday | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Eliza Pearce | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 17.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.