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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University4.78+4.04vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College4.15+4.96vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+1.83vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University3.92+3.44vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.85-0.30vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.76+2.06vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.14+5.87vs Predicted
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8Harvard University4.52-2.44vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-3.39vs Predicted
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10University of Notre Dame-0.25+7.09vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.69-2.64vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.50-2.85vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College3.63-4.67vs Predicted
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14University of Washington2.81-3.15vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota0.20+1.49vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine2.17-3.07vs Predicted
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17University of Texas2.50-4.97vs Predicted
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18University of Saint Thomas1.26-3.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.04Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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6.96SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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4.83St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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7.44Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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4.7Yale University4.850.2%1st Place
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8.06Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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12.87Tulane University2.140.0%1st Place
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5.56Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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5.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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17.09University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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8.36University of Miami3.690.0%1st Place
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9.15Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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8.33Eckerd College3.630.0%1st Place
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10.85University of Washington2.810.0%1st Place
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16.49University of Minnesota0.200.0%1st Place
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12.93University of California at Irvine2.170.0%1st Place
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12.03University of Texas2.500.0%1st Place
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14.72University of Saint Thomas1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cy Thompson | 12.4% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.1% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 14.5% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Barrows | 16.1% | 14.8% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.5% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chris Raff | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 15.7% | 20.3% | 15.3% | 5.8% | 1.2% |
| Alan Palmer | 11.7% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John O'Brien | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 24.8% | 57.7% |
| David Hernandez | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Meier | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Darrin | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Joe Lund | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 12.7% | 37.5% | 33.5% |
| Brian Hoover | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 19.4% | 16.1% | 5.8% | 0.7% |
| Scott Proctor | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Medora Sletten | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 29.3% | 20.5% | 6.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.