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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.79+2.98vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.52+2.96vs Predicted
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3Columbia University0.44+4.83vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+3.01vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.07+1.44vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.86-1.25vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.16-0.08vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.18-1.71vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.52+1.24vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92-3.87vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-0.89vs Predicted
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12Fordham University-0.35-2.09vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.68vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-1.70vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.27-1.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.98Cornell University1.7920.1%1st Place
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4.96Old Dominion University1.5213.0%1st Place
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7.83Columbia University0.445.1%1st Place
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7.01St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.9%1st Place
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6.44George Washington University1.078.0%1st Place
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4.75Georgetown University1.8614.0%1st Place
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6.92University of Pennsylvania1.166.2%1st Place
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6.29U. S. Naval Academy1.188.8%1st Place
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10.24SUNY Maritime College-0.522.4%1st Place
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6.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.1%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.8%1st Place
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9.91Fordham University-0.352.5%1st Place
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9.32Christopher Newport University-0.842.6%1st Place
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12.3Princeton University-0.970.6%1st Place
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13.81Washington College-2.270.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 20.1% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Lina Carper | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.0% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Ava Farley | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 16.4% | 13.8% | 5.6% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 3.5% |
| Laura Smith | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 1.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 30.6% | 21.2% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 15.3% | 62.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.