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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+4.09vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.47+4.77vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.32+4.27vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.70-0.84vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University1.28+6.60vs Predicted
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6University of Washington2.25+1.41vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy2.38+0.01vs Predicted
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8Santa Clara University2.22-0.24vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego1.81+0.04vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria0.72+3.42vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.83+2.06vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.50+2.60vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.84-4.19vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.50+0.60vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-1.92vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine0.90-3.34vs Predicted
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18Western Washington University1.12-6.18vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles0.82-5.98vs Predicted
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20University of California at Berkeley1.48-9.67vs Predicted
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21University of Oregon0.46-6.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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6.77University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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7.27University of Hawaii2.320.1%1st Place
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3.16Stanford University3.700.3%1st Place
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11.6Northwestern University1.280.0%1st Place
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7.41University of Washington2.250.1%1st Place
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7.01California Poly Maritime Academy2.380.1%1st Place
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7.76Santa Clara University2.220.1%1st Place
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9.04University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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13.42University of Victoria0.720.0%1st Place
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13.06University of California at Davis0.830.0%1st Place
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14.6California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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8.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.840.1%1st Place
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14.6California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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13.08University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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12.66University of California at Irvine0.900.0%1st Place
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11.82Western Washington University1.120.0%1st Place
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13.02University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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10.33University of California at Berkeley1.480.0%1st Place
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14.08University of Oregon0.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Long | 11.8% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giacomo Paoletti | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 26.6% | 21.0% | 17.3% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Anderson | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Kris Thompson | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lamb | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Wood | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Manuel Gomez | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 20.1% | 0.0% |
| Alison Gillum | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 20.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| Kate Andersen | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Halliday | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Eliza Pearce | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.