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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+5.35vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.04+2.04vs Predicted
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3California State University Monterey Bay0.36+9.53vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.72-1.38vs Predicted
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5University of Washington2.10+1.50vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+5.59vs Predicted
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7Santa Clara University1.55+1.31vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.42+4.10vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.49-3.71vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria1.65-1.88vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego1.18-1.35vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.40-2.87vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles1.39-4.21vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.52-5.79vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.16-2.06vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University-0.99-0.14vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University0.03-3.50vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay0.36-5.47vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-0.86-3.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.35California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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4.04University of Hawaii3.040.1%1st Place
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12.53California State University Monterey Bay0.360.0%1st Place
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2.62Stanford University3.720.3%1st Place
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6.5University of Washington2.100.1%1st Place
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11.59University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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8.31Santa Clara University1.550.0%1st Place
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12.1University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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5.29University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.1%1st Place
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8.12University of Victoria1.650.1%1st Place
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9.65University of California at San Diego1.180.0%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Berkeley1.400.0%1st Place
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8.79University of California at Los Angeles1.390.0%1st Place
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8.21University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
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12.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.160.0%1st Place
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15.86Northwestern University-0.990.0%1st Place
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13.5Western Washington University0.030.0%1st Place
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12.53California State University Monterey Bay0.360.0%1st Place
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15.45University of California at Irvine-0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Doyle | 7.3% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 13.2% | 18.3% | 16.4% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Macko | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 33.2% | 25.0% | 16.7% | 11.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lily Grimshaw | 6.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 1.3% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ale | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Cobi Allen | 9.7% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Cannon | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wooldridge | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Goldberg | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Hays | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Carle | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 21.2% | 41.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan McLaughlin | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| David Macko | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Steiner | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 25.0% | 31.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.