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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+5.28vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.86+2.65vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.07+3.54vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+3.05vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.18+1.44vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.16+0.82vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.79-2.99vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.52+2.50vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.52-3.96vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.44-2.35vs Predicted
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11Fordham University-0.35-1.08vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.91vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-0.86vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-4.00vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.27-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.3%1st Place
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4.65Georgetown University1.8615.2%1st Place
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6.54George Washington University1.077.3%1st Place
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7.05St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.9%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Naval Academy1.187.1%1st Place
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6.82University of Pennsylvania1.167.0%1st Place
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4.01Cornell University1.7918.6%1st Place
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10.5SUNY Maritime College-0.521.8%1st Place
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5.04Old Dominion University1.5213.4%1st Place
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7.65Columbia University0.445.3%1st Place
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9.92Fordham University-0.352.3%1st Place
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9.09Christopher Newport University-0.842.9%1st Place
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12.14Princeton University-0.971.3%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.1%1st Place
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13.87Washington College-2.270.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deana Fedulova | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 15.2% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Ava Farley | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 18.6% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 15.2% | 4.7% |
| Marina Conde | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 11.7% | 3.1% |
| Laura Smith | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 7.6% | 1.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 30.1% | 20.8% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 3.1% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 65.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.