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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island0.88+2.59vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii0.99+1.64vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara0.06+2.44vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.22+1.26vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara-0.76+2.29vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.73-1.52vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.30-4.05vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-0.09vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.99+0.25vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.39-3.59vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.59University of Rhode Island0.8817.6%1st Place
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3.64University of Hawaii0.9917.3%1st Place
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5.44University of California at Santa Barbara0.067.2%1st Place
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5.26University of California at San Diego0.227.8%1st Place
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7.29University of California at Santa Barbara-0.763.5%1st Place
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4.48University of California at Berkeley0.7311.8%1st Place
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2.95University of California at Los Angeles1.3026.6%1st Place
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7.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.952.5%1st Place
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9.25University of California at San Diego-1.991.1%1st Place
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6.41Arizona State University-0.393.8%1st Place
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9.77University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Coghlin | 17.6% | 18.2% | 18.1% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 17.3% | 17.6% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Svenja Leonard | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Lekha Sapers | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 18.7% | 20.3% | 13.5% | 4.2% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 11.8% | 11.7% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 26.6% | 21.9% | 17.4% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Macy Rowe | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 22.9% | 22.1% | 8.1% |
| Jessica Dally | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 13.4% | 30.3% | 32.4% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 16.9% | 14.6% | 7.0% | 1.7% |
| Nina-Katreen Hipkins | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 10.7% | 20.3% | 52.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.